Why the Rangers should hold on Alexis Lafreniere
Buying high and selling low is far too common in Chris Drury's shop
Being drafted first overall in the National Hockey League draft conjures up images of all time greats Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Of the 19 Conn Smythe winners since the 2005 lockout canceled season, five were picked first overall and ten were selected within the top five.
When a franchise endures the type of season it takes to select that high in the draft, there is a reasonable expectation for a return on investment. To trade away a whole season to toil away in the bottom 12 of the league to be lottery eligible means that the player taken that June needs to be an impactful player for a long time. Of course, the draft, like much of sport’s management is parts logic, art and voodoo.
The New York Rangers had no reasonable business picking first overall in the 2020 draft. The team qualified for the expanded, return to play playoff tournament and bowed out in three games to the Carolina Hurricanes. Somehow, that fall, the ping pong balls smiled upon the Rangers and they ended up picking first overall after having just a two percent chance of selecting first.
New York took consensus first overall pick, forward Alexis Lafrenière of Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL. In the scope of first overall picks, where recent selections like the aforementioned McDavid, Matthews and MacKinnon are amongst the league’s best players and will be for the foreseeable future. The Rangers expected that with time, Lafrenière would be an impactful first line player capable of assuming an important role an championship caliber team.
But, a funny thing happened in that process. The first two coaches Lafrenière endured as a Ranger, David Quinn and Gerard Gallant seemed to resent the idea that there was further development to be done. The organization’s attention pivoted to competing as soon as possible in spite of the fact that the Rangers picked first overall in the fall of 2020.
It’s also worth mentioning that the COVID-19 pandemic threw Lafrenière’s development cycle all out of whack. His junior season was paused in the Spring of 2020, he was drafted that fall and he reported to Rangers camp in mid-January of 2021. That was invaluable time in Lafrenière’s development and New York did not go out of its way to prioritize his learning.
In the Spring of 2021, while the Rangers were three standings points back of the Boston Bruins for the last spot in the makeshift Metropolitan division with a few games in hand, the team was trying to push for a playoff spot. At the time, I wrote:
The real frustration is, during both of the four-game losing streaks this season, Quinn himself used the team’s inexperience and youth as a reason for the struggles. Essentially saying that if the team is the youngest average aged team in the entire league, there are going to be ups and downs.
Now suddenly that the playoffs seem plausible to Quinn, he’s running a short bench at the expense of those young players. The short-sighted nature of his lineup decisions is just the latest in a long-term pattern that’s cause for concern.
It’s not exactly a secret that the Rangers don’t have a great track record of talent development, especially when it comes to the forward position. New York had eight first round picks between 2017 and 2020, before Lafrenière’s NHL debut in January of 2021. Of those eight picks, just three (Lafreniere, K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider) are still with the organization.
It’s been a long winding road for the Rangers organization that failed to get the most out of its rebuild period. While the team wouldn’t trade it’s success during the 2022 and 2024 postseasons, their stunning lack of long-term pieces from that four year window is part of why the roster has so many question marks in the present.
Now, with the organization approaching a summer that must yield roster turnover or risk a mutiny, Lafrenière’s name is in the wind. Do I expect the Rangers to move Lafrenière this summer? No, I don’t. The team simply cannot continue to sell low on pieces and watching other teams extract more value from them.
To understand why Lafrenière’s in this position four years after being the first overall pick, it’s important to understand the context of his play. While his counting stats pale in comparison to contemporary first overall picks, we in the hockey world understand that usage is the strongest dictator of counting stat production.
It’s the time on ice stupid
There is no bigger indicator of eventual counting stat production than ice time. The more a player gets on the ice, the more opportunities they have to create offense and subsequently more chances to score. Typically speaking, first overall picks are going to barren rosters, which means during their debut season, they’re given preferential playing time and opportunities to sink their teeth into the fat of the NHL.
Since Ovechkin was drafted in 2004, the only first overall pick to average less overall time on ice in the first five years of their NHL career than Lafrenière’s 15:16 per game was Nail Yakupov, arguably the biggest first overall bust in the lottery era. Even more notably, no first overall pick since Ovechkin has averaged less power play time than Lafrenière’s 1:05 per game. That’s 37 seconds less per game than Yakupov who was entirely out of the NHL by 24-years-old.
There is a chicken or the egg conundrum as far as special teams usage that is fair game when analyzing Lafrenière’s ice time through his first 5 NHL seasons. The Lafrenière-opposed will argue that he did little in the first five years of his career to garner power play time over players firmly entrenched on one of the league’s best units like Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome, then later Vincent Trocheck or Artemi Panarin.
Of course, the pro-Lafrenière contingent, like myself, feel that there needed to be an investment to eventually yield returns. That’s why I circled back to the Quinn quote from spring 2021 and why it’s the root of the Rangers’ present day lineup issues. The Rangers were more than glad to take Lafrenière first overall and make him a part of the team. But once they got their hands on him, the team had unilaterally decided it was no longer in the rebuilding phase, but ready to compete for a playoff spot.
This win now mentality with such a young roster was a short sighted approach. While I understand the organization’s apprehension to turn the rebuild into an extended period in the vein of the Buffalo Sabres or Ottawa Senators that the team never climbs out of, there was a middle ground New York for some reason avoided. Instead, the Rangers pushed chips in and leveraged their position on the proposition that their good players would be good enough and the young pieces in specialized, niche roles would give them just enough to win.
In transition
Trying to understand talent development in hockey requires a wide ranging approach. Hone in on any one component of a player’s journey and you might miss one of the finer details. In the case of Lafrenière, while his usage is arguably the largest reason for his stunted ceiling, there is a case to be made that the player he’s demonstrated at the NHL level still has room to grow and a higher ceiling is attainable.
In addition to his usage, it’s worth visiting his line mates, quality of competition and deployment.
Of Lafrenière’s most common line mates through his first five NHL regular seasons, only two permutations (Filip Chytil/Julien Gauthier in 21-22 and Trocheck/Panarin in 22-23) have had negative goal shares. While Lafrenière on an individual basis might not be the strongest driver of play, as a supplementary piece to more high end players, there is value waiting to be extracted.
It’s not a coincidence the best season of Lafrenière’s career coincided with his full-time promotion to riding along side Panarin during a Hart Trophy worthy season and Trocheck hitting a career high in points. Lafrenière’s best instincts are as a playmaker, and playing with dangerous line mates enabled him to find more open space in transition.
Up until the 2024-2025 season, Lafrenière had increased the number of controlled zone entries he averaged per 60 minutes of ice time. In addition to showing a reasonable command of puck possession in transition, as much as has been made about Lafrenière’s skating throughout his NHL career, the only season in which he was classified as a below average skater, in either top speed or bursts over 20 MPH was his sophomore campaign when he was below the 50th percentile in top skating speed.
Going under the hood, Lafrenière profiles as one of the Rangers’ better transition forwards during his tenure. The former first overall pick is often a strong carrier of the puck into the offensive zone with control and over the last two seasons, has been second or third in carry in percentage, meaning that when Lafrenière enters the zone, he’s doing so with puck control, allowing the Rangers to go right to offense as opposed to needing to win a loose puck.
With transition tools the Rangers desperately need, especially in the present on a slower, older team, Lafrenière is borderline an essential component for potential success going forward.
Why we can’t give up now
I’ve long held Rangers General Manager Chris Drury with an air of skepticism. The general manager has been reactionary, non-accountable and at times prone to retaliation. It’s not a coincidence the day after former second overall pick Kaapo Kakko went on the record saying he felt he was being unfairly singled out amidst a team of under achievers he was exiled to Seattle in return for Will Borgen. Of course, after 17 games, Drury was so convinced Borgen was going to be a great Ranger, the former Kraken defenseman was signed to a five year extension with limited no-trade protection.
Lest we forget Drury and former head coach Gerard Gallant’s shouting match after the Rangers lost game five of the first round during the 2023 series against the Devils. We can throw in the well-documented case of Drury chewing into Vitali Kravtsov in front of the entire team when he the former was still only assistant GM of the team.
It’d be very easy for Drury to add Lafereniere to his long list of sold low on assets. It’s almost become the GM’s M.O. to operate from a position of emotion as opposed to logic. Instead of improving the team’s discernible flaws, it’s an act to acquire players that play a certain way, regardless as to whether what those players did successful is translatable to the Rangers or fits what New York’s existing players already do.
As a team that’s going to be up against the cap ceiling in spite of the cap continuing to rise for the foreseeable future, it is of the utmost importance that Drury find ways to get younger and cheaper throughout the lineup where he can. For all of the prognostication about Lafrenière failing to live up to expectations and being a failure for a first overall pick, the greater conversation is missing the most straightforward explanation.
No, Lafrenière is not a gamebreaking first overall pick bound for the Hockey Hall of Fame that can take over a playoff series by himself. If anything, he likely needs another quality line mate to truly maximize the value he brings to the Rangers. But, in spite of that lower than expected ceiling, Lafrenière has demonstrated an ability to be successful at the NHL level within the context of his playing time, especially in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
In 43 playoff games, the Ranger forward has 23 career points including 10 even strength goals. Over New York’s last three playoff runs, his ten even strength goals are second only to Kreider’s 11. That’s right, Lafrenière has more five on five goals, including the playoff series against the Devils where he didn’t put the puck in the net once, has more even strength tallies than Panarin, Zibanejad, Trocheck or any other Ranger.
That’s what’s so frustrating about this entire ordeal from the outside looking in. New York’s had Lafrenière for five NHL seasons now, and there is still a lack of clarity as to what exactly the former first overall pick is at this level. If the Rangers had dedicated more to his development at earlier stages of his career, he’d likely have a higher ceiling and be more impactful.
Instead, the Rangers are in the boat of potentially dumping their former first overall pick to create cap space in search of a greater roster remodel. I think it’s a massive mistake to continue to orient the direction of the franchise around the early 30 age cohort of Zibanejad, Kreider, Panarin, Trocheck and J.T. Miller for the long-term prospects of the organization, but the Rangers are pretty set in their ways. The fact that Drury was given a multi-year extension after missing the postseason as a show of confidence and that the players would need to change their ways, not him doesn’t bode particularly well for any of us that would like the team to think more about the medium and long-term.
It’s not Drury’s probably what happens five years from now. Right now, his goal is to avoid future embarrassments, good luck with that one by the way, and try to squeeze more toothpaste out of an empty tube. Dumping Lafrenière now would be a total admission of failure to realize the opportunity an extended rebuild represented.
In distributing blame for Lafrenière failing to reach his ceiling as an NHL player, it’s hard to lump it all in one particular direction. Personally, I’ve long felt environment matters more than talent because talent has to operate within the confines of a team. It’s the same conversation we have about highly drafted college quarterbacks going to black hole organizations where they’re expected to be the savior.
The irony being that the Rangers didn’t treat Lafrenière like a savior. Instead, they prioritized maximizing the value of their existing older core, and expected Lafrenière’s physical gifts to carry him through to the other side. Now, with those unrefined tools and approaching his mid-20’s, the Rangers desperately need Lafrenière to provide value.
The former first overall pick will always be more valuable to the Rangers than another organization because of his presence with in an existing operation. While another GM might think he’s worth taking a stab at and trying to re-claim/mold in a different direction, that’s a lot of risk to take on in light of the contract extension that kicks in next season.
For the Rangers to make the most of Lafrenière, there needs to be a wholesale effort to focus on what he is good at. He’s never going to be an elite 200 foot player. He’s never going to be MacKinnon or McDavid level explosive. He’s likely never going to be a point per game forward at the NHL level.
But, Lafrenière has demonstrated an ability to be a quality player, especially in the postseason against the highest level of competition. There is a player of value to a team that needs youthful reinforcements in there, somewhere waiting to be tapped into. Holding in a seller’s market requires gumption and fortitude. The Rangers trying to get Lafrenière to what he can be is almost certainly an easier bet than taking on another distressed asset or pure liquidity.
If the Rangers dump Lafrenière ahead of his extension going into effect, they likely would be getting a player of a similar profile in return. A former highly touted amateur player that hasn’t reached their potential might sound nice in the abstract as an opportunity to start over. However, the Rangers haven’t exactly shown an inclination for giving guys chances if they haven’t met some arbitrary guideline for “earning it.”
Even worse, if the Rangers were to dump Lafrenière purely to get more liquid and get draft picks in return, those picks would simply be more ammo for other distressed assets, or used to select players years away from helping a team that needs reinforcements right now.
There is a useful top six winger with good offensive traits. His even strength prowess in the postseason on a team with few meaningful play drivers is all the more valuable. For the Rangers to stave off an extended malaise in the NHL’s mushy middle, the second half of Lafrenière’s 20s will likely serve as a bellwether.
As the Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider, Trocheck and J.Miller group ages out or is moved, the Rangers will need players to fill in the gaps. While Will Cuylle was a pleasant surprise this season, the Rangers need more than just one grinding middle six forward to lead the next wave of the team. The Rangers have something in Lafrenière, it’s incumbent upon them to find out and not just give up.