Adam Fox is the Rangers' Hart Trophy Candidate

Mika Zibanejad is having a great year, but 23 is the engine that keeps the team moving

Understanding the New York Rangers on a macro level for the most part is a fool’s errand. The team’s marriage of underlying numbers and playing style defies most conventional logic for what a Stanley Cup should look like. New York, by design, concedes a lot defensively in hopes of springing its elite group of forwards in the other direction to control the game through a rushed based offense.

While New York features one of the most talented forward groups in the salary cap era, the team’s fortunes were always tied to the players here prior to the NHL trade deadline. Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko are flashy names, they excite TV executives, national media members and other stake holders, but they aren’t driving the bus.

They’re supporting characters in an ensemble cast, the Martin Sheen and Mark Wahlberg in Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed,” to Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox’s Leonardo DiCaprio and Matt Damon. The supporting cast reinforces “The Departed’s,” quality as a film, but it’s the two stars with their own orbits that carry the load.

When you look at “The Departed,” under a fine tooth comb, the plot doesn’t make a ton of sense. There are logical inconsistencies, some of the performances (Jack Nicholson) don’t hold up under scrutiny. Much like the Rangers, if you think too hard, you don’t exactly understand why it works.

Now, full disclosure, the only reason this is being written is Arthur Staple, the Rangers’ beat reporter for The Athletic, wrote a column Friday advocating for Zibanejad to get down ballot Hart Trophy votes.

Reading that take felt, homer-ish.

Staple’s principle argument was rooted in Zibanejad being a clutch player. Zibanejad only trails Connor McDavid’s league leading 21 goals scored in a tie game with 18. The other part of Staple’s stump speech? Zibanejad’s friend Chris Kreider.

I fully accept Staple has a job to do and needed to publish something on a Rangers off day. Zibanejad is a fan favorite and his friendship with Kreider is held in the highest tier of regard, it’s an easy story to write and one that will interest an audience into clicking on the link.

Unfortunately, my brain doesn’t work like that. I read a take and immediately go to the evidence to ascertain the veracity of said opinion. While I think Zibanejad has been New York’s most important forward, it’s actually Fox that’s the Rangers’ most valuable component.

Zibanejad is one of several high-end skill players but has cemented himself as a fan favorite with his personality. It’s like a protagonist in a film franchise having plot armor. While logic may dictate a different outcome, the parasocial relationship between fans and Zibanejad makes it hard to fairly compare him to other players.

On the other hand, Fox isn’t as emotionally available. He’s just one of several stars on the team, his myth as a fan who forced his way to the team to pursue his dream is treated with reverence but isn’t held in the same light parasocially.

Before getting to the facts, it’s important to note this isn’t meant to disparage Zibanejad. I can fully put my hand up as someone who wasn’t enthusiastic about his extension and admit he’s exceeded my expectations and outplayed his underlying numbers. Yes, I was wrong. That’s being accountable for a take.

This is the epitome of a first world problem. Word to Billy Beane, it’d be like hating the taste of champagne as a Yankee in 2001.

The actual goals

Instead of waxing poetic about Fox’s game like an AO3 fan fiction writer masquerading as a columnist in the daylight, I’ll cut down to the most important details. So, in evaluating who carries a bigger chunk of the load, we need to factor in the overlap the two have together.

Through 73 games this season, Fox and Zibanejad have overlapped for 452:55 at five on five. In that shared ice time, the Rangers have outscored opponents 23-14 for a 62.14 percent goal share. Of the Rangers’ three most common centers (Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck and Filip Chytil) Fox has played the most with Trocheck.

In the time directly apart from each other, Fox has a slight edge (57.14 percent of the goals) to Zibanejad’s (54.76 percent of the goals) at five on five. That isn’t a huge difference and speaks to how successful the Rangers are with either on the ice. Like I said, most teams would love to have this debate about who their most valuable player is.

Going a step further, to audit said goal results, we need to factor in shooting and goaltending. Quantifying luck in the NHL is a challenge because the publicly available stat tracking numbers aren’t as good as some of the proprietary statistical models. That said, we can gain a deeper understanding of counting stats (goals and points) through these more detailed stats.

In Fox’s 824:13 of ice time without Zibanejad, the Rangers have an 8.77 on-ice shooting percentage and a 92.04 save percentage. Meaning that 8.77 percent of all Ranger shots, not just Fox’s are goals and 92.04 percent of shots that Ranger goaltenders face are saved when the defenseman is on the ice.

I add that caveat about on-ice shooting percentage to differentiate it from regular shooting percentage which is goals divided by total shots.

As for Zibanejad, the forward checks in at an 8.58 on ice shooting percentage and a 92.83 save percentage. That means slightly worse shooting luck and slightly better goaltending when the Swede is away from Fox. Now, on the team wide level, both are clearly upper echelon.

Of all Ranger defenseman, Fox ranks second behind Niko Mikkola in goals for per 60 at 2.96 which ranks 22nd of all blue liners in the entire NHL with at least 1000 minutes at 5 on 5. Of course, Mikkola only has 360:55 as a Ranger and doesn’t face the five on five workload that Fox does even though they’ve been shotgun defensive partners in the wake of Ryan Lindgren’s shoulder injury.

Up front, Zibanejad checks in at seventh of all Ranger forwards in goals for per 60 minutes of ice time at 5 on 5 with 2.83. That figure ranks 111 of all forwards with at least 700 minutes of ice time and 56th amongst specifically centers.

I like rate stats that scale out numbers over a per 60 minutes ratio because it allows comparison amongst players with different work loads. It’s very easy to calculate, simply divide the number of goals for

So for example Fox’s would be calculated: 63 (goals for)/ 1277.10 (ice time) X 60 (Per 60 rate) which gives 2.96 as his goals for per 60.

Now, rate states don’t tell the entire story because they don’t account for deployment. If someone’s playing lower in the lineup and thriving, they might not necessarily play well further up the depth chart. Higher up in the lineup means better competition and more ice time which might expose more of a player’s deficiencies.

Thanks to the very convenient PuckIQ.com, we can get a gage on the quality of competition for both Zibanejad and Fox. Zibanejad plays 39.6 percent of his ice time against the opponent’s best players whereas Fox plays 36.5 percent against the best of the best. Unsurprisingly, Zibanejad ranks first in quality of competition amongst the team’s centers.

Fox’s 36.5 percent against elite talent ranks second amongst all Ranger defensemen only behind his partner Lindgren.

So, now that we’ve unpacked the tangible, how lucky each is in accumulating their counting stats and the competition they do it against, it’s time to peel back how each gets to their result.

Looking at the Trees

So, this is typically where I lose people. The retort I’ll often get is rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of what these statistics mean or what they represent. I’ll get told “you’re missing the forrest for the trees,” because I’m focusing on how players got to the finish line as opposed to the finish itself.

That’s one dimensional thinking. With access to more information, why not try and gain as logical an understanding as possible? That’s always been my goal, paint the most detailed picture possible so others have actionable information to make decisions with.

The conventional metrics: Corsi, expected goals and high danger chances, are all rooted in one common principle, is a player’s actions contributing to goals.

The more chances a player creates, the more dangerous chances a player creates, the more likely they are to eventually score a goal. Of course, in small sample sizes that doesn’t always hold true. Goaltending in hockey is the most high variance position in professional hockey. Which is why the NHL playoffs produce the most upsets of the four major North American sports leagues.

With the scatter plot above, we get a picture of the impact Ranger players have on their teammates in the value of the chances generated for and against.

So, on the X-axis (horizontal) the further to the right a player is, the more expected goals per 60 minutes they generate. On the Y-axis (vertical) is a measure of the expected goals the player concedes when they are on the ice.

Furthest to the right, meaning the player that generates the most expected goals per 60 of any player on the team is Fox. While Zibanejad is close, he’s seventh amongst all Rangers in terms of expected goals for. So while strong, it’s not as much as Fox.

Further more, without Fox, the Rangers as a team dramatically become less dangerous offensively.

As previously mentioned, Fox makes his teammates better by being on the ice. The heat map above shows where scoring chances come from when Fox is on the ice, the areas of red being that more shots than average come from there. Notice that the bulk of the chances come from extremely dangerous areas of the ice which results in a higher expected goals rate.

When Fox isn’t on the ice, the Rangers generate .6 fewer expected goals per 60 minutes of ice time. You’ll notice that the team takes a bulk of its scoring chances from less dangerous areas like the right point (Trouba and Schneider) and the wide sides of the net mouth which aren’t easy areas to score from.

Fox’s puck skills on the back end enable the Rangers to play their best version of offense where the team gets the puck in between the circles and down low to generate quality scoring opportunities.

It’s a similar picture for Zibanejad when it comes to chance creation in the offensive zone.

The Rangers generate more dangerous chances with Zibanejad on the ice than when they don’t. You’ll notice in particular on the above heat map that the bulk of the chances come from the net mouth and top of the circles. That speaks to the high leverage plays the Rangers execute when 93 is on the ice.

The cross seam pass instead of shooting manifests higher danger scoring chances and why I don’t really harp on the passiveness in the offensive zone. They see the ice differently on the playing surface and it’s why I avoid being a heathen yelling “SHOOT,” while double fisting $16 Bud Lights.

Where Zibanejad and Fox differ in how they create offense are the stakes. Ideally, you’d like to create offense without conceding defensively. However, when it comes to Zibanejad’s ice time, the Rangers are more likely to concede against and trade chances off of the rush in both directions.

The heat map shows Zibanejad’s impact on expected goals against per 60 minutes of ice time and portrays that chance trading environment. Since Zibanejad thrives on the rush in the offensive zone, he’s typically going to be deeper and not be able to come back as quickly on defense once the puck is going towards the Rangers’ end of the ice.

That’s at least in part why the Rangers concede dangerous chances when the Swede is on the ice. His style of play lends itself to more of a track meet style where as Fox is more about getting to offense quickly and then using his superior hockey IQ to pick apart the other team in the offensive zone.

Some of what makes Fox’s defensive output so strong is rooted in a simple idea: playing less defense is the best defense. If the Rangers are on offense more than they are defense, they’re going to concede fewer overall chances. Even if the other team does gain the zone against Fox, New York has spent more time in the other zone and generated more offense which is more likely to result in offense.

Hockey goes to WAR

If you’re familiar with modern baseball discourse, you’ve likely come across wins above replacement (WAR) in your reading. WAR is a catchall statistic which combines all outputs of a player into a single number. WAR is calculated differently depending on the individual statistical model so it’s worth noting there will be different results depending where one looks.

WAR is not a perfect metric, anytime one combines multiple inputs there’s always a risk of weighing one component too heavily or too lightly. For the purposes of this conversation, we can think of this as turning around the back of a baseball card.

You remember baseball cards, right? You got 8 in a pack for $3 and hoped you got a player you’d heard of before. No, I didn’t have gum in the packs when I was a kid, I didn’t grow up during the Cold War.

Baseball cards present a still image and a player’s career stats on the back. To gain a better understanding of how good a player is, you’d go deeper into the record with primary sources like books or news articles. If they played after the mainstreaming of television, you might go watch highlights to get coloring within the lines.

Part of understanding these metrics is interpreting their blind spots, what they value too much or too little. So, a player with an outlier shooting percentage might have a higher WAR than a player who’s clearly more talented. For example, Jared McCann of the Seattle Kraken is riding a cool 20 percent shooting percentage and sits 11th in the entire NHL in Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement (GAR) metric.

The above is from Evolvinghockey.com and shows the components that go into calculating a player’s goals above replacement. Each colored bar represents a different component, blue for even strength offense, orange for even strength defense, purple for power play offense, light blue for short handed defense, green for penalties taken and yellow for penalties drawn.

You’ll notice that Fox is the highest on the Rangers and actually checks in at the 95th percentile of all players in the entire NHL. In relation to the rest of the league, Zibanejad sits in the 81st percentile of players, which is still pretty good.

Fox is just a tick better than Zibanejad in even strength offense while providing significantly more defensive and power play value.

Statistical models don’t like Zibanejad’s defense because the Rangers trade chances when he’s on the ice. This high leverage style works because New York has the high end supplemental talent to out shoot their underlying numbers. But, for the purposes of a direct comparison, it does show that the Rangers are in better game situations with Fox on the ice.

Microstats and transition

The crux of this argument was rooted in a realization I had a few weeks ago and all statistical evidence supports. The Rangers feature one defenseman, Fox, capable of breaking out of the defensive zone and fueling that high stakes transition game the team is predicated upon for success.

The scatter plot above shows the relationship between puck retrievals that are successful and fail amongst defensemen in the NHL. Along the horizontal axis, it measures how often a player fails to exit the zone, the vertical axis shows the amount of retrievals that result in zone exits.

Unsurprisingly, Fox ranks amongst the very best in the entire league at exiting the zone successfully and fails minimally. For the Rangers to play their ideal style, they need Fox to bend the game to his will in all three zones because he’s got such a unique skillset.

As you’ll notice, the other five healthy Rangers’ defenseman all fail to exit the defensive zone at an above average rate. Meaning that the other team is able to engage its forecheck for longer and try to break down New York’s defensive structure.

To give Zibanejad his flowers as an offensive creator, we can highlight his shot assists per 60 and shots per 60. The 29-year-old is third on the team in the ratio of primary shot assists to shots per 60, trailing only Panarin and Trocheck. He does skew shoot first which might seem anecdotally surprising because of his proclivity for over passing.

Final thoughts

Trying to explain concepts to people who don’t wanna hear them is often a fruitless endeavor. You remember sitting in middle school math and a teacher suddenly introduced letters to equations and your brain shut off? That’s the vast majority of sports fans when it comes to their favorite teams.

They don’t want homework, they don’t wanna feel responsible for understanding why things happen to their favorite team. They just wanna watch the game, react if the team wins or loses and that’s the extent of their interaction.

To me, any attempts at gatekeeping fandom are rooted in insecurity. There’s room for the diehard who’s engagement with the team ends when the game does and the fan who’s subscribed to six statistic Patreons to try and get a deeper understanding simultaneously. The existence of one doesn’t invalidate the other’s feelings or experiences.

I understand the emotional attachment Zibanejad has developed with the Rangers’ fanbase. He’s an eminently likable human being with a real commitment to doing the right thing.

That’s not what this is about. We’re taking our fan hat off at the door and neutrally comparing two players.

This is entirely reading too deep into a throwaway column that is half as long as this rebuttal, but I felt Fox deserved recognition for the season he’s having.

The best American born defenseman in the NHL is gonna get the short end of the stick in Norris voting because Erik Karlsson has entirely forsaken defense to score points on a lottery team which is utterly unfair. Fox is the single most important skater on the Rangers.

The Long Island native is a singular force through which hockey flows. Puck retrievals, defensive breakouts, walking the line, body feints and head games. It’s a testament to intelligence and positioning that Fox dominates the way he does with no elite physical traits.

Fox brings this to a domain with extreme positional scarcity. Until NHL teams embrace defenders taking larger risks to create offense, those rare few who are able to truly tilt the ice offensively and create chances without conceding defense are going to hold a rarified air.

Zibanejad is a really good player teetering on elite. Fox is a transcendent talent at his position. Both have value and are vital components to the Rangers’ team success. If either one were to miss an extended period of time, New York would be screwed.

But this season at least, Fox is the Rangers’ down ballot MVP candidate.