A Defense of Southern Hockey
The Long Game is working
As the NHL still recovers from a multi-year revenue dip tied to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was genuine hope from major stakeholders that a legacy market would go on a deep playoff run and buoy hockey related revenue enough to finally get salary cap growth back on the table.
The NHL has operated in a flat cap environment of $81.5 million from 2019-2020 through the 2021-2022 season. The 2022-2023 season featured a modest $1 million increase up to $82.5 million. For cap crunched teams looking to improve or retain talent, this lack of cap growth made for a real challenge.
There was a tenuous idea tying a deep Toronto Maple Leafs or New York Rangers playoff run to a larger increase this summer. Those are power house markets with major financial foot prints. They also feature the two highest highest average ticket prices in the entire NHL the last season full data was available (2019-2020).
For those hoping for more than a modest salary cap increase this offseason, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news.
The NHL’s multi-decade project to bring hockey to non-traditional markets is bearing fruit at the absolute most compelling of times. Of the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason, half were below the Mason-Dixon line.
More notable than that, the final four teams still standing in pursuit of the Stanley Cup are all are recent entries into NHL history The Florida Panthers were founded in 1993. The Dallas Stars moved from Minnesota to Dallas that same year. The Carolina Hurricanes moved from Hartford to Raleigh in 1997. The Vegas Golden Knights were born in 2017.
The NHL’s forays into these non-traditional hockey markets haven’t always born out. The Winnipeg Jets owe their second iteration to the failures of the league in Atlanta and Arizona Coyotes are still years away from an NHL caliber facility.
All of that said, from a hockey longevity perspective, the growth of the game in under developed markets is imperative. While traditionalists will scoff their nose at the newcomers to the party, they’re entirely missing the point of expansion and re-location.
Whenever an expansion franchise is founded or an existing one moves, it’s rooted in trying to tap into a new market space. Sure, every city has transplants, people who bring their identity with them from other places.
You’ll see commentary about the amount of the opposing team jerseys in those transplant heavy markets like Raleigh and Sunrise. While that’s definitely true, it’s also part of the calculous for sustainability of a market. There needs to be a certain baseline interest in hockey before an organization can worry about outreach and organically introducing fans to the game.
In my opinion, the state of today’s game is a reflection about the long-term success of this project. I’m not just talking about the four teams in pursuit of the Stanley Cup, I’m talking about the brightest young stars in today’s game.
It isn’t an overnight process. The development of hockey infrastructure takes time, but we have evidence that there are great hockey talents in these markets. It’s just a matter of providing the opportunity and an environment where advancement is possible.
Playing the long game
We’re still a long ways off from the United States producing hockey talent on scale comparable to Canada. According to Quanthockey.com’s analysis of the 2021-2022 season the league is still majority Canadian at 43.2 percent. However, the United States is inching closer and up to 28.2 percent.
The top seven Americans in points for the 2022-2023 season are all from non-traditional hockey markets.
Two from southern California, three from Arizona, one from Florida and one from Missouri.
That graphic alone is a testament to the southern hockey project. The payoff is long-range. When the Jets relocated from Winnipeg to Arizona and became the Coyotes in 1996, there was no way to know that both of Keith Tkachuk’s sons would go onto become premier power forwards in the NHL, but it happened.
The sun belt is the fastest growing region in the United States, it’s part of why the NHL has clung to the Arizona market in spite of its struggles. In fact, as I write this column the city of Tempe is voting on a ballot proposition to rezone parts of the city for the Coyotes to build a privately funded arena.
For as much as I skewer the NHL’s owners inability to seek out the growth of the league over short term profits, the vision for a league spanning the United States and Canada is very real.
The next step in furthering this process is consistent winning from these non-traditional markets to activate new fans. It’s conventional wisdom, but winning remedies all issues. The Tampa Bay Lightning’s perennial contender status over the last decade tapped into a market that couldn’t be bothered with the Rays of Major League Baseball even with tangible success on the diamond.
The Lightning haven’t finished outside the top ten in average attendance since the 2011-2012 season. In that same window, the only time the Rays weren’t a bottom five team in average attendance in all of baseball is the current 2023 MLB season which is only 42 games old and the team is off to the best start in franchise history.
That’s what the hockey traditionalists bemoaning the composition of the final four are missing. Sure, it’s frustrating a Canadian franchise hasn’t won the Stanley Cup since 1993. But at the same time, inviting new cities and fans to the table is ultimately better for the game.
For a league that’s finances pale in comparison to the other three major North American sports, there are new revenue streams in underdeveloped markets waiting to be activated. There are only so many people in the traditional markets to still get invested in hockey.
On the other hand, focusing on these non-traditional markets means people entirely unfamiliar or disinterested with hockey can get brought to the table. Sure, it’s easy to jump on a bandwagon when a team is winning, but it’s also the key to growth for the NHL as the possibilities for expansion shrink.
At 32 teams, there’s barely enough talent to go around. Further expansion of the league would stretch the talent pool too thin and result in too many uncompetitive teams.
That’s why this final four is so exciting as a neutral observer. Two teams that have never won the Stanley Cup, one that has a single cup from 2005-2006 and the other with one in 1998-1999.
So no matter what new life long hockey fans are going to get molded over the next month as the playoffs reach their climactic conclusion. That’s ultimately the goal for any professional league, ensuring the future viability of the game.
The traditionalists throwing up their hands and bemoaning southern hockey are missing the boat. They’re taking their ball and going home because they didn’t get their way. Sure, I’d like my team to win the Stanley Cup every year too.
But pretending these markets are less worthy than older ones because they don’t have long histories is pure elitism.
Today’s bright young American stars are the by-product of the NHL’s long game. For all of the league’s faults in marketing and vision, the on ice impact is obvious. Multiple future Hart Trophy Candidates. Depending how the rest of the playoffs go, maybe a Conn Smythe.
That’s a hell of a legacy to leave.